Apple iPad - Breakthrough or Next Newton?

In late January, Steve Jobs, the controversial CEO of Apple, unveiled the iPad, the company's ostensible answer to the Amazon Kindle. But unlike the fairly uni-tasking Kindle, the iPad can surf the web, run apps, and play iTunes, among other things.

The hype leading up to its introduction bordered on the ridiculous. Expectations were set impossibly high with all sorts of wild speculation regarding display technologies, processors, and connectivity. So when the device was finally revealed, many were disappointed by its uncharacteristically sparse features list, at least for Apple. No camera, and no multi-tasking capability (at least as announced at launch.) Also, many were hoping there would be networking options beyond those offered by AT&T, widely reviled by iPhone owners in San Francisco and New York for spotty 3G coverage.
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Yet looking back to the introduction of the original iPhone, there are some striking parallels between the two devices, especially in terms of their public reception and critical response. Many said Apple was already too late in the game with the iPhone, and much like where the iPad stands currently, there were few, if any, native applications available for it. Likewise, with the Kindle and Nook already on the market, along with other e-readers from Sony and other manufacturers, some are already saying Apple has missed the boat on entering the e-reader market. Yet for all the early prognostications of failure for the iPhone, it remains the iconic standard in the smartphone market, and has spawned dozens of competitors.

Likewise, I believe apart from dedicated bookworms, the general public is more attracted to a color, multi-function, multi-tasking device than a black & white uni-tasker. As others have said in the electronic enthusiast community, the iPad will likely live or die by its apps. As of now, the device is still not on sale, and it's unknown if it will receive the same support in the developer community as the iPhone did.

My prediction in terms of overall sales volume and developer support, is that the iPad will not quite reach the same dizzying heights of sales and sector dominance as the iPhone, but will certainly be one of the top three best-selling devices in its segment. I also expect that many of the initial criticisms leveled against it will be addressed in future versions of the device, most likely multi-tasking, and video support, as well as additional data carriers.

Prior to its official introduction, I was planning on being one of the early adopters of the iPad, and be the proverbial coffeehouse geek clutching one in my nerdy hands. However, as it currently stands, I will wait until it arrives in stores for some hands-on playtime, and possibly holding out until the 2010 holiday season for some mid-cycle updates.

Scott Brown Election - What it Means

Those of you that closely follow politics are likely aware of Scott Brown's stunning upset election in Massachusetts over Martha Coakley. As the seat was filled for more than 40 years by Ted Kennedy, many assumed it was a foregone conclusion that whomever took the seat over would be a Democrat as well.

Evidently, the voters of Massachusetts had a different idea. Brown's margin of victory was five points. Whether or not you consider that margin "decisive" is beyond the point. It was a solid enough win that it didn't appear the Coakley campaign was going to request a re-count, which seems to be a Democratic tradition lately when elections don't come out in their favor.

So what does the election of a Republican in an overwhelmingly Democratic state presage for upcoming elections, and what was it in reaction to, if anything? I believe the euphoria over Barack Obama's election is wearing off, and the scores of liberal politicians that rode his coattails into office are starting to realize that Obama's idealistic aura is no longer enough to protect them. Voters have likewise moved beyond being dazzled by his charisma, and come to realize that strongly liberal agenda of the current congress may not be in their best interests.
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As a Republican, I'm heartened that Brown was able to win in a deep blue state. But I don't necessarily see it as an unqualified omen of success for the GOP. Rather, I see it as an indication of American voters' innate sense that no single party or faction should have absolute, unchecked power.

The Democrats assumed Obama's election gave them unconditional license to push through a hard-left agenda, chief of which was health care reform. However, the further along the legislative process went, the more people came to realize the program would bring staggering new costs with little perceived benefit. They rightfully told their representatives and senators to slow down and get it right. But the liberal majority continued full speed ahead, tone deaf to the calls of their constituents.

So, taken in that context, Brown's election isn't such a surprise. And I do believe it's a preview of a significant shift in the balance of power in Washington come the 2010 mid-term elections.

The Chaos Scenario - Book Review

Okay, I know it's been a long, long time since there's been much of a pulse here on CC. I apologize to any of you (if there are any) that follow this blog with much regularity.

Well, I finally finished The Chaos Scenario by Bob Garfield. The main premise of the book is how the internet and the instantaneous communication afforded by advancements in technology have had a highly disruptive effect on traditional media. Back in the "good old days" when wizened, cigar-chomping editors and fat cat publishers controlled the flow of information via the limited outlets of newspapers, magazines and television, the "powers that be" had the power of controlling the dialogue between companies, government, and other institutions, and the general public.
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Now, with Facebook, instant messenger, texting, cell phone cameras, YouTube, and too many other variations to count, the "gates" that were so carefully guarded by the gatekeepers of yore have been effectively obliterated. Now, we're essentially experiencing mob rule in communications. People that prior to the web's invention would have gone unnoticed their entire lives suddenly become YouTube sensations, celebrity bloggers that are celebrities in their own right, or those with a single-minded vendetta against individuals or corporations that they feel have done them wrong. There's really no longer any effective way of controlling which way communication flows.

The one term Garfield uses over and over in the book is "Listenomics" wherein companies suddenly have a vested interest in listening to consumers, and serving and meeting their needs more effectively. Those companies that ignore the unwashed, interconnected masses do so at their own peril.

Another key concept in the book is how the traditional and current model of advertising is largely ineffective in the new communication model. In the days of the primacy of traditional media, consumers accepted advertising as a "quid pro quo" trade-off for "free" or reduced-cost media. Now, advertising is considered an unwanted intrusion on the user experience, yet at the same time, people expect nearly everything online to be free. Clearly from a business standpoint, this is an unsustainable model.

Overall, the book presents many more questions than it does authoritative answers, but the author invites readers to continue the conversation at http://thechaosscenario.net/blog/. For anyone that works in media, either old or new, or that has an interest in the direction that technology is taking communications, it's a worthwhile and thought-provoking read.

Bolivia - The Next Saudi Arabia?

Hybrids have been all the rage in the last few years, and extended-range and pure electric vehicles are about to be introduced by several major manufacturers. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu has expressed strong support for electric vehicles, beyond ethanol, hydrogen, or several other alternative fuels.

For electrics and advanced hybrids to become a mainstream reality, it's going to take large quantities of lithium, one of the primary components in advanced batteries. Cell phones, laptops, and just about every other portable electronic device uses lithium batteries.

But cars will require much larger batteries than portable electronic gizmos. The one nation poised to benefit the most from this significant shift in automotive technology is currently one of the most impoverished nations in South America, Bolivia. Unlike Brazil, with its significant industrial base, or Chile, with a healthy trade relationship with the U.S., Bolivia is a landlocked, high-altitude backwater with little industry or development. However, it is considered by many to be the "Saudi Arabia" of lithium.
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Unfortunately, it's also home to Evo Morales, its left-leaning leader, friend of Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez, and known and demonstrated advocate of state control of natural resources. Shortly after his 2005 election, Morales sent troops to occupy the country's oil and natural gas refineries, and subsequently strong-armed the foreign owners of the refineries (primarily Petrobras, Brazil's majority state-owned energy company) into giving majority control to the Bolivian government.

There's little reason to think Morales wouldn't do likewise to the country's lithium assets. While the more idealistic among us would like to think this potential windfall would be shared among the citizens in the form of improved infrastructure, new schools, dividend checks and other such altruistic expressions, the more common example in previously impoverished nations that find themselves suddenly wealthy is a concentration of wealth among the political elite, and continued impoverishment of the masses.

It would truly be a shame if in the developed world's enlightened rush to rid itself of dependence on hydrocarbon fuels, that it results in economic inequity and disenfranchisement elsewhere. Likewise, companies eager to exploit Bolivia's reportedly vast resources of lithium should exercise caution in dealing with such an openly socialist regime, as outright state control of the precious resource isn't out of the question.

What do you think? Will Bolivia's lithium reserves catapult the country to new heights of success and economic progress? Or simply enrich the socialist party elites?

For further reading, check out Foreign Policy Magazine online.